Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.56 – 26.09

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.9 ±10.4

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 17.58Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 3.64Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 3.34Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.8 ±11.6

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 20Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 1.46Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 4.63Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9788, 10121, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9788, 10121, 11353

Auto

8.8 37%

Teleop

18.1 75%

Endgame

-2.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4861, 587, 9042

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4861, 587, 9042

Auto

15.7 51%

Teleop

4.5 15%

Endgame

10.3 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.6pts

Blue projected score26.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.5
Score range: 17–34
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 45.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.9Season APEX204.8

8.8Auto15.7

18.1Teleop4.5

-2.8Endgame10.3

157Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	20
teleop	19	44
endgame	16	5
foul	0	5
total	51	74

Result

Final score

51 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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