Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.36 – 52.76

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±11.7

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 3.96Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 30.46Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -1.06Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.2 ±11.7

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 8.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 35.94Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 8.01Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 435, 4828, 3459

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 435, 4828, 3459

Auto

8.5 28%

Teleop

8.3 27%

Endgame

13.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11161, 2059, 9559

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11161, 2059, 9559

Auto

13.2 27%

Teleop

19.8 41%

Endgame

15.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.4pts

Blue projected score52.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.4
Score range: 25–61
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 44.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.5Season APEX187.2

8.5Auto13.2

8.3Teleop19.8

13.9Endgame15.2

54Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	6
teleop	6	49
endgame	6	31
foul	5	5
total	18	91

Result

Final score

18 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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