Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
45.93 – 4.37
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
32 – 46
Prediction missed · off by 27.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.9 ±12.8
Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 13.86Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 9.25Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 22.82Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.3 ±11
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 2.81Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.4Event APEX -0.19Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 24Event APEX 1.75Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4816, 8738, 9789
50
/ 100 compatProjected
45.9 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 4816, 8738, 9789
Auto
10.3 22%
Teleop
38.4 83%
Endgame
-2.2 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5160, 3336, 5919
6
/ 100 compatProjected
4.4 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 5160, 3336, 5919
Auto
3.0 100%
Teleop
-7.9 0%
Endgame
6.4 100%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 0.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score45.9pts
Blue projected score4.4pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 15%, blue 13%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 41.6
- Score range
- -4–54
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
157.9Season APEX139.3
10.3Auto3
38.4Teleop-7.9
-2.2Endgame6.4
37Consistency50
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 5 | 6 |
| teleop | 26 | 31 |
| endgame | 1 | 9 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 32 | 46 |
Result
Final score
32 – 46
Prediction missed · off by 27.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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