Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.09 – 37.3

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.8 ±11.2

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 5.27Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 0.55Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 46.27Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.2 ±11

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 11.01Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 20.46Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 5.83Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 587, 10072, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 587, 10072, 4561

Auto

17.1 35%

Teleop

24.4 50%

Endgame

7.3 15%

Strengths

· 4561 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4861, 3229, 11285

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4861, 3229, 11285

Auto

1.5 4%

Teleop

17.4 46%

Endgame

18.8 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.1pts

Blue projected score37.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.8
Score range: 29–60
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 43.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.8Season APEX147.2

17.1Auto1.5

24.4Teleop17.4

7.3Endgame18.8

71Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	17
teleop	29	27
endgame	12	21
foul	0	0
total	63	65

Result

Final score

63 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.