Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.6 – 39.52

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

18 – 5

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.8 ±12.2

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 18.48Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 3.79Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 33.33Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.9 ±11.7

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 7.45Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 24.96Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 7.11Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9042, 11161, 10302

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9042, 11161, 10302

Auto

17.0 31%

Teleop

28.1 51%

Endgame

10.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6240, 8738, 3459

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6240, 8738, 3459

Auto

4.2 11%

Teleop

31.4 81%

Endgame

3.4 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.6pts

Blue projected score39.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.1
Score range: 26–70
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 23 vs event baseline 78.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.8Season APEX145.9

17Auto4.2

28.1Teleop31.4

10.1Endgame3.4

23Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	3
teleop	2	1
endgame	2	1
foul	0	0
total	18	5

Result

Final score

18 – 5

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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