Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
33.59 – 14.52
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
23 – 35
Prediction missed · off by 15.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.2 ±13.3
Season APEX 31Event APEX 3.98Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 12.01Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 17.6Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 112.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 15.81Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -6.67Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 5.38Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10354, 435, 4816
35
/ 100 compatProjected
33.6 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 10354, 435, 4816
Auto
11.0 36%
Teleop
25.2 82%
Endgame
-5.3 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 9%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9789, 3459, 10121
14
/ 100 compatProjected
14.5 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 9789, 3459, 10121
Auto
5.3 29%
Teleop
17.4 97%
Endgame
-4.7 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 9%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score33.6pts
Blue projected score14.5pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 9%, blue 9%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 19.1
- Score range
- 7–42
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
122.2Season APEX112.9
11Auto5.3
25.2Teleop17.4
-5.3Endgame-4.7
35Consistency52
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 10 |
| teleop | 6 | 18 |
| endgame | 1 | 7 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 23 | 35 |
Result
Final score
23 – 35
Prediction missed · off by 15.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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