Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.46 – 36.9

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

44 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.7 ±10.4

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 2.95Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -4.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 17.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.5 ±11

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 24.58Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 6.2Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 6.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8738, 5160, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 5160, 9788

Auto

-1.4 0%

Teleop

12.0 93%

Endgame

2.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3229, 9042, 11285

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3229, 9042, 11285

Auto

9.5 27%

Teleop

15.6 45%

Endgame

9.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15.5pts

Blue projected score36.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.4
Score range: 7–45
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 43.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.7Season APEX162.5

-1.4Auto9.5

12Teleop15.6

2.3Endgame9.7

179Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	6
teleop	28	22
endgame	16	8
foul	0	0
total	44	36

Result

Final score

44 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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