Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.59 – 83.34

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.6 ±10.5

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 44.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 4.97Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 15.2Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.3 ±9.8

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 42.15Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 31.68Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 9.51Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 5919, 9559

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4561, 5919, 9559

Auto

12.2 21%

Teleop

38.6 66%

Endgame

8.0 14%

Strengths

· 4561 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4795, 11179, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4795, 11179, 6502

Auto

16.9 20%

Teleop

42.8 51%

Endgame

23.5 28%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.6pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.7
Score range: 58–90
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 40.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.6Season APEX402.3

12.2Auto16.9

38.6Teleop42.8

8Endgame23.5

105Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	21	62
endgame	10	39
foul	15	0
total	64	115

Result

Final score

64 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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