Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.13 – 25.72

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

22 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 8.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295 ±12.4

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX -2.22Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 6.44Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 3.91Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111.9 ±11.7

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 9.08Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 7.48Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 9.16Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8429, 435, 10072

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 435, 10072

Auto

3.2 100%

Teleop

0.4 17%

Endgame

-1.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11353, 3336, 6240

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11353, 3336, 6240

Auto

12.8 60%

Teleop

-0.1 0%

Endgame

8.7 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.1pts

Blue projected score25.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.6
Score range: 0–34
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 44 vs event baseline 42.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295Season APEX111.9

3.2Auto12.8

0.4Teleop-0.1

-1.2Endgame8.7

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	16
teleop	5	5
endgame	9	1
foul	0	0
total	22	22

Result

Final score

22 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 8.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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