Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
8.6 – 26.23
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
30 – 28
Prediction missed · off by 11.6 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 42Event APEX 5.71Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39Event APEX 5.71Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -2.82Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.5 ±11.7
Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 5.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 4.53Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 16.42Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11353, 9559, 5160
24
/ 100 compatProjected
8.6 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 11353, 9559, 5160
Auto
2.8 28%
Teleop
8.0 81%
Endgame
-0.9 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 7%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 587, 9789, 3336
47
/ 100 compatProjected
26.2 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 587, 9789, 3336
Auto
5.6 20%
Teleop
9.2 33%
Endgame
13.5 48%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 7%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.25
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score8.6pts
Blue projected score26.2pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 7%, blue 10%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -17.6
- Score range
- 2–33
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
149.9Season APEX208.5
2.8Auto5.6
8Teleop9.2
-0.9Endgame13.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 16 |
| teleop | 2 | 7 |
| endgame | 4 | 5 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 30 | 28 |
Result
Final score
30 – 28
Prediction missed · off by 11.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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