Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.79 – 87.38

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

32 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±9.8

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 51.4Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 7.93Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 26.46Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.3 ±10.4

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 16.72Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 47.98Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 22.68Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8429, 3229, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 3229, 9788

Auto

12.2 15%

Teleop

43.8 54%

Endgame

24.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3336, 4828, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3336, 4828, 6502

Auto

20.2 23%

Teleop

45.5 53%

Endgame

20.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.8pts

Blue projected score87.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.6
Score range: 72–101
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 78.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.5Season APEX227.3

12.2Auto20.2

43.8Teleop45.5

24.8Endgame20.6

46Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	16
teleop	10	2
endgame	13	9
foul	5	0
total	32	27

Result

Final score

32 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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