Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.53 – 130.11

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.4 ±9.8

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 68.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 19.21Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 65.81Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 49.47Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 56.11Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 24.53Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 10121, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4561, 10121, 2059

Auto

35.0 24%

Teleop

79.3 54%

Endgame

33.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8429, 4795, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 4795, 11353

Auto

20.9 17%

Teleop

72.3 58%

Endgame

31.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.5pts

Blue projected score130.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 116–168
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 77.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.4Season APEX461.8

35Auto20.9

79.3Teleop72.3

33.7Endgame31.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	9
teleop	102	114
endgame	35	67
foul	0	5
total	177	195

Result

Final score

177 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 pts

Match videos

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