Final · Finals 1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
141.88 – 122.31
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
214 – 233
Prediction missed · off by 91.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 63.96Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 15.48Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 62.44Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 46.87Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 53.62Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 42Event APEX 21.82Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4561, 10121, 2059
84
/ 100 compatProjected
141.9 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 4561, 10121, 2059
Auto
34.1 25%
Teleop
71.6 52%
Endgame
31.0 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8429, 4795, 11353
81
/ 100 compatProjected
122.3 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 8429, 4795, 11353
Auto
20.9 18%
Teleop
67.6 57%
Endgame
29.1 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score141.9pts
Blue projected score122.3pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 20%, blue 9%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 19.6
- Score range
- 109–155
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
385.4Season APEX461.8
34.1Auto20.9
71.6Teleop67.6
31Endgame29.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 42 | 26 |
| teleop | 112 | 118 |
| endgame | 55 | 69 |
| foul | 5 | 20 |
| total | 214 | 233 |
Result
Final score
214 – 233
Prediction missed · off by 91.4 pts
Match videos
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