Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.09 – 55.06

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.6 ±11

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 8.43Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 43.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 42.7Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±9.8

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 24.8Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 17.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 13.25Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11146, 6894, 9042

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11146, 6894, 9042

Auto

24.3 26%

Teleop

44.5 47%

Endgame

25.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 6639, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 6639, 9788

Auto

17.5 31%

Teleop

29.3 52%

Endgame

9.9 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.1pts

Blue projected score55.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40
Score range: 32–118
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 129.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.6Season APEX277.8

24.3Auto17.5

44.5Teleop29.3

25.4Endgame9.9

47Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	16
teleop	61	54
endgame	29	11
foul	0	0
total	123	81

Result

Final score

123 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Match videos

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