Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.95 – 88.31

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 27.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±9.8

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 24.92Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 15.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 13.38Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.6 ±11.7

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 48.03Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 16.83Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 23.45Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8205, 6639, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 6639, 9788

Auto

16.0 29%

Teleop

29.5 53%

Endgame

10.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 3459, 435

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 3459, 435

Auto

23.2 27%

Teleop

34.2 40%

Endgame

27.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54pts

Blue projected score88.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.4
Score range: 31–111
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.8Season APEX160.6

16Auto23.2

29.5Teleop34.2

10.2Endgame27.4

22Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	29
teleop	29	10
endgame	14	8
foul	0	0
total	68	47

Result

Final score

68 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 27.7 pts

Match videos

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