Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.67 – 113.7

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±11.6

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 22.93Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 24.13Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 32.61Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.1 ±11.7

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 29.31Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6729RobCoBots

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 44.85Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 39.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5190, 11417, 9198

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5190, 11417, 9198

Auto

15.3 22%

Teleop

34.4 49%

Endgame

20.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7443, 6729, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7443, 6729, 6004

Auto

9.9 9%

Teleop

58.1 55%

Endgame

37.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.7pts

Blue projected score113.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34
Score range: 57–137
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241Season APEX160.1

15.3Auto9.9

34.4Teleop58.1

20.5Endgame37.5

23Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	41	54
endgame	33	18
foul	0	15
total	92	108

Result

Final score

92 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 9 pts

Match videos

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