Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.23 – 54.79

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231 ±10.4

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 72.61Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 71.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 24.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±9.8

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 25.21Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 15.78Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 13.8Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4534, 4829, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4534, 4829, 9005

Auto

28.9 18%

Teleop

89.3 56%

Endgame

40.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 6639, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 6639, 9788

Auto

16.1 28%

Teleop

31.4 55%

Endgame

9.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.2pts

Blue projected score54.8pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.4
Score range: 32–191
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231Season APEX277.8

28.9Auto16.1

89.3Teleop31.4

40Endgame9.6

68Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	18
teleop	106	23
endgame	55	14
foul	5	0
total	210	55

Result

Final score

210 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Match videos

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