Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.25 – 173.7

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±11

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 22.86Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 84.11Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 72.28Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231 ±10.4

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 75.69Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 71.55Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 26.46Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3893, 9297, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3893, 9297, 2059

Auto

25.6 15%

Teleop

100.6 57%

Endgame

49.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4534, 4829, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4534, 4829, 9005

Auto

31.1 19%

Teleop

84.6 52%

Endgame

45.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.3pts

Blue projected score173.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.6
Score range: 150–203
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.1Season APEX231

25.6Auto31.1

100.6Teleop84.6

49.7Endgame45.6

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	28
teleop	39	77
endgame	51	52
foul	0	0
total	117	157

Result

Final score

117 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 pts

Match videos

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