Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.27 – 98.54

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231 ±10.4

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 73.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 69.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 24.03Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.6 ±11

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 8.99Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 45.51Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 44.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4534, 4829, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4534, 4829, 9005

Auto

30.5 20%

Teleop

83.7 54%

Endgame

42.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11146, 6894, 9042

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11146, 6894, 9042

Auto

25.2 26%

Teleop

47.1 48%

Endgame

25.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.3pts

Blue projected score98.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.7
Score range: 75–190
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 131.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231Season APEX167.6

30.5Auto25.2

83.7Teleop47.1

42.1Endgame25.4

47Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	34
teleop	89	22
endgame	71	17
foul	30	0
total	226	73

Result

Final score

226 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Match videos

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