Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.63 – 166.81

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.8 ±12.2

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 11.14Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 14.2Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 24.29Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.4 ±10.8

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 9.81Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 98.5Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 58.5Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4816, 5190, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4816, 5190, 4534

Auto

13.9 28%

Teleop

25.2 51%

Endgame

10.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9296, 9496, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9296, 9496, 8205

Auto

21.2 13%

Teleop

100.7 60%

Endgame

44.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.6pts

Blue projected score166.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.2
Score range: 29–188
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.8Season APEX405.4

13.9Auto21.2

25.2Teleop100.7

10.7Endgame44.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	77
teleop	69	72
endgame	34	10
foul	0	0
total	121	159

Result

Final score

121 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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