Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.2 – 50.52

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.5 ±10.5

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 13.39Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 28.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 21.63Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 105.7 ±12.7

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 21.11Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 14.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 14.91Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6639, 9198, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6639, 9198, 9005

Auto

11.3 20%

Teleop

36.4 65%

Endgame

8.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5190, 6242, 3822

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5190, 6242, 3822

Auto

18.4 38%

Teleop

20.3 42%

Endgame

9.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.2pts

Blue projected score50.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.7
Score range: 29–85
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.5Season APEX105.7

11.3Auto18.4

36.4Teleop20.3

8.2Endgame9.7

61Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	54	19
endgame	30	3
foul	0	10
total	97	50

Result

Final score

97 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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