Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.89 – 101.87

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.7 ±11.7

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 85.92Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 71.43Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 5.54Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.1 ±12.2

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 27.18Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 46.79Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 27.9Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9297, 4829, 4816

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9297, 4829, 4816

Auto

24.3 16%

Teleop

88.3 58%

Endgame

39.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9789, 5607, 11297

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9789, 5607, 11297

Auto

21.7 23%

Teleop

44.3 46%

Endgame

29.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.9pts

Blue projected score101.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61
Score range: 80–185
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.7Season APEX219.1

24.3Auto21.7

88.3Teleop44.3

39.3Endgame29.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	19
teleop	120	55
endgame	69	33
foul	0	10
total	202	117

Result

Final score

202 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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