Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.79 – 71.14

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.5 ±12.8

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 24.89Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 0Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 20.9Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 102.1 ±12.2

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 21.75Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 38.98Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 10.41Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8205, 8758, 435

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 8758, 435

Auto

21.5 56%

Teleop

9.5 25%

Endgame

7.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3893, 6894, 10583

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3893, 6894, 10583

Auto

22.4 28%

Teleop

40.6 51%

Endgame

16.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.8pts

Blue projected score71.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.3
Score range: 24–93
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.5Season APEX102.1

21.5Auto22.4

9.5Teleop40.6

7.6Endgame16

17Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	24
teleop	33	72
endgame	34	34
foul	0	0
total	82	130

Result

Final score

82 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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