Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.48 – 98.53

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.6 ±10.4

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 15.7Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 27.11Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 44.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±12.8

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -1.19Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 29.25Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 70.47Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9788, 3336, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9788, 3336, 5607

Auto

27.4 32%

Teleop

33.1 39%

Endgame

24.7 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8758, 7443, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8758, 7443, 2059

Auto

22.8 25%

Teleop

48.1 52%

Endgame

22.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.5pts

Blue projected score98.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11
Score range: 63–123
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.6Season APEX184.6

27.4Auto22.8

33.1Teleop48.1

24.7Endgame22

6Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	14
teleop	35	39
endgame	20	9
foul	0	5
total	70	67

Result

Final score

70 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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