Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.66 – 136.18

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.5 ±10.5

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 36.41Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 46.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 16.08Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±11.7

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 31.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 75.92Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 28.62Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6894, 9042, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6894, 9042, 6639

Auto

17.9 17%

Teleop

67.1 64%

Endgame

20.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11417, 4534, 435

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11417, 4534, 435

Auto

24.1 19%

Teleop

68.7 53%

Endgame

36.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.7pts

Blue projected score136.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.5
Score range: 77–158
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.5Season APEX323.8

17.9Auto24.1

67.1Teleop68.7

20.2Endgame36.6

5Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	31
teleop	57	26
endgame	35	13
foul	0	0
total	114	70

Result

Final score

114 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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