Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.6 – 81.65

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.5 ±12.8

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 10.26Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 7.77Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 5.57Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.1 ±12.7

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 17.2Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6729RobCoBots

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 41.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 22.79Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6242, 9296, 3336

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6242, 9296, 3336

Auto

18.4 82%

Teleop

-0.2 0%

Endgame

4.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9789, 6729, 5190

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9789, 6729, 5190

Auto

15.0 18%

Teleop

39.9 49%

Endgame

26.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.6pts

Blue projected score81.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58
Score range: 2–104
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.5Season APEX123.1

18.4Auto15

-0.2Teleop39.9

4.3Endgame26.9

28Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	25
teleop	16	50
endgame	18	28
foul	30	0
total	79	103

Result

Final score

79 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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