Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.08 – 71.52

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.7 ±11.7

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 28.55Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 40.22Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 20.31Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.1 ±12.2

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 49.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 24.55Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX -2.94Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 435, 6004, 3822

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 435, 6004, 3822

Auto

17.9 22%

Teleop

41.0 51%

Endgame

21.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9042, 9005, 4816

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9042, 9005, 4816

Auto

22.5 30%

Teleop

39.1 53%

Endgame

12.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.1pts

Blue projected score71.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: 50–111
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 121.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.7Season APEX121.1

17.9Auto22.5

41Teleop39.1

21.3Endgame12.5

16Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	13
teleop	35	25
endgame	27	8
foul	15	5
total	93	51

Result

Final score

93 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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