Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.21 – 135.92

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.5 ±12.2

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 32.81Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 25.68Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 17.72Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.6 ±11.7

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 88.44Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 28.01Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 19.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8205, 9198, 10583

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 9198, 10583

Auto

23.0 31%

Teleop

33.5 45%

Endgame

18.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9297, 11417, 7443

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9297, 11417, 7443

Auto

15.8 12%

Teleop

78.4 59%

Endgame

37.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.2pts

Blue projected score135.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.7
Score range: 54–158
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.5Season APEX302.6

23Auto15.8

33.5Teleop78.4

18.5Endgame37.7

38Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	30	75
endgame	13	81
foul	0	0
total	57	169

Result

Final score

57 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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