Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.8 – 259.57

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.2 ±12.2

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 23.54Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 12.79Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 0.47Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.6 ±9.4

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 38.79Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 198.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 22.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11297, 3459, 8758

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11297, 3459, 8758

Auto

9.0 26%

Teleop

9.8 28%

Endgame

16.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6894, 9496, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6894, 9496, 9788

Auto

60.6 23%

Teleop

151.0 58%

Endgame

50.7 19%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.47 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.8pts

Blue projected score259.6pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -222.8
Score range: 15–282
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.2Season APEX402.6

9Auto60.6

9.8Teleop151

16.4Endgame50.7

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	85
teleop	2	152
endgame	24	21
foul	10	0
total	59	258

Result

Final score

59 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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