Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.62 – 133.95

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.1 ±11.1

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 39.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6729RobCoBots

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 39.95Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 21.86Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.2 ±10.5

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 27.77Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 22.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 84.17Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6004, 6729, 3893

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6004, 6729, 3893

Auto

6.9 7%

Teleop

59.0 57%

Endgame

37.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5190, 6639, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5190, 6639, 2059

Auto

13.8 10%

Teleop

92.5 69%

Endgame

28.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.6pts

Blue projected score134pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.3
Score range: 81–155
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.1Season APEX319.2

6.9Auto13.8

59Teleop92.5

37Endgame28.7

41Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	36
teleop	46	47
endgame	41	9
foul	0	0
total	102	92

Result

Final score

102 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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