Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.29 – 127.11

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±12.4

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 29.76Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 4.58Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 18.95Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.9 ±11

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 16.02Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 43.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 67.13Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10260, 4816, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10260, 4816, 6639

Auto

13.5 24%

Teleop

39.7 70%

Endgame

3.4 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3459, 9042, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3459, 9042, 4534

Auto

28.6 22%

Teleop

64.7 51%

Endgame

34.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.3pts

Blue projected score127.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.8
Score range: 29–151
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.4Season APEX189.9

13.5Auto28.6

39.7Teleop64.7

3.4Endgame34.4

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	25	46
endgame	0	24
foul	0	0
total	39	85

Result

Final score

39 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree