Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.99 – 117.71

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.2 ±11.7

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 84.93Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 18.2Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 32.86Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.2 ±9.8

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 26.27Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 13.95Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 77.49Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2059, 10583, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2059, 10583, 5607

Auto

24.7 19%

Teleop

64.9 49%

Endgame

42.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6639, 11146, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6639, 11146, 4534

Auto

19.5 18%

Teleop

61.4 56%

Endgame

28.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136pts

Blue projected score117.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.3
Score range: 97–157
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.2Season APEX337.2

24.7Auto19.5

64.9Teleop61.4

42.4Endgame28

69Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	26
teleop	77	24
endgame	14	12
foul	0	0
total	126	62

Result

Final score

126 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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