Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.44 – 80.74

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.8 ±12.8

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 9.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 26.42Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 35.31Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.3 ±11

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 22.55Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 30.45Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 27.74Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6242, 10260, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6242, 10260, 8205

Auto

22.9 32%

Teleop

35.6 50%

Endgame

13.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11297, 11417, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11297, 11417, 9005

Auto

7.5 10%

Teleop

44.8 60%

Endgame

22.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.4pts

Blue projected score80.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.3
Score range: 49–103
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.8Season APEX317.3

22.9Auto7.5

35.6Teleop44.8

13.1Endgame22.5

15Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	24
teleop	18	31
endgame	21	15
foul	0	0
total	57	70

Result

Final score

57 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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