Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.46 – 73.26

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.5 ±10.5

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 31.43Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 27.62Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 88.41Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.3 ±11.2

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 30.8Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 38.43Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 4.03Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6639, 11297, 9297

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6639, 11297, 9297

Auto

7.3 5%

Teleop

94.7 70%

Endgame

33.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9005, 6004, 8758

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9005, 6004, 8758

Auto

17.8 25%

Teleop

35.8 50%

Endgame

17.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.5pts

Blue projected score73.3pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.2
Score range: 52–168
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.5Season APEX142.3

7.3Auto17.8

94.7Teleop35.8

33.7Endgame17.9

0Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	90	38
endgame	18	14
foul	0	5
total	124	72

Result

Final score

124 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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