Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.45 – 251.92

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 92.4 ±13.9

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 11.25Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 22.68Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 18.52Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435 ±11.7

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 27.91Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 202.89Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 21.12Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6242, 9789, 10583

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6242, 9789, 10583

Auto

19.5 37%

Teleop

20.3 39%

Endgame

12.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11297, 9032, 435

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11297, 9032, 435

Auto

44.4 18%

Teleop

133.6 55%

Endgame

64.8 27%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.5pts

Blue projected score251.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -199.5
Score range: 28–276
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

92.4Season APEX435

19.5Auto44.4

20.3Teleop133.6

12.9Endgame64.8

43Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	31
teleop	6	163
endgame	15	55
foul	0	0
total	43	249

Result

Final score

43 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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