Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

34.72 – 29.32

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

55 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124 ±12.2

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -5.57Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 8.74Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 31.55Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.8 ±13.9

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 1.24Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 17.22Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 10.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9296, 3459, 5190

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9296, 3459, 5190

Auto

16.6 41%

Teleop

23.1 57%

Endgame

1.0 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4816, 10583, 7443

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4816, 10583, 7443

Auto

23.6 75%

Teleop

13.8 44%

Endgame

-5.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.7pts

Blue projected score29.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 8–56
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124Season APEX90.8

16.6Auto23.6

23.1Teleop13.8

1Endgame-5.8

72Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	23	8
endgame	20	2
foul	0	0
total	55	25

Result

Final score

55 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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