Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.88 – 178.75

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 108.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.4 ±11.7

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 38.18Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -16.12Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 56.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±11

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 37.24Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 113.34Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 28.17Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4534, 6242, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4534, 6242, 2059

Auto

18.0 24%

Teleop

25.3 34%

Endgame

32.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 9297, 9198

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 9297, 9198

Auto

20.2 11%

Teleop

117.9 64%

Endgame

45.0 25%

Strengths

· 9297 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score178.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.9
Score range: 59–199
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.4Season APEX206.1

18Auto20.2

25.3Teleop117.9

32.1Endgame45

77Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	27
teleop	138	18
endgame	63	38
foul	0	35
total	235	118

Result

Final score

235 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 108.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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