Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.56 – 201.65

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.1 ±9.9

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 145.55Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 36.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 24.69Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 471.6 ±10

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 11.66Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 181.08Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 8.91Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 6004, 5190

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9032, 6004, 5190

Auto

41.2 20%

Teleop

112.7 54%

Endgame

53.7 26%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11146, 9496, 11297

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11146, 9496, 11297

Auto

68.2 35%

Teleop

97.6 50%

Endgame

30.0 15%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.6pts

Blue projected score201.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.9
Score range: 182–227
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 111.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.1Season APEX471.6

41.2Auto68.2

112.7Teleop97.6

53.7Endgame30

85Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	24
teleop	138	111
endgame	49	79
foul	5	15
total	239	229

Result

Final score

239 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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