Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.92 – 32.78

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134 ±11.7

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 32.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 16.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 30.04Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111.4 ±13.3

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 37.93Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 6.5Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -11.65Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9005, 7443, 6894

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9005, 7443, 6894

Auto

17.6 23%

Teleop

35.9 46%

Endgame

24.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3893, 10260, 9296

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3893, 10260, 9296

Auto

14.8 53%

Teleop

15.5 55%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score32.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.1
Score range: 13–99
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134Season APEX111.4

17.6Auto14.8

35.9Teleop15.5

24.7Endgame-2.2

151Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	75	28
endgame	19	12
foul	0	0
total	114	57

Result

Final score

114 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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