Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.83 – 110.22

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 84.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423 ±9.8

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX -9.04Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 31.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 121.21Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.7 ±12.2

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 40.64Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 47.1Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 22.48Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3336, 2059, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3336, 2059, 9032

Auto

40.4 28%

Teleop

71.9 51%

Endgame

29.7 21%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3822, 8205, 4816

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3822, 8205, 4816

Auto

28.1 26%

Teleop

69.3 65%

Endgame

9.5 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.8pts

Blue projected score110.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.6
Score range: 90–164
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423Season APEX128.7

40.4Auto28.1

71.9Teleop69.3

29.7Endgame9.5

26Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	22
teleop	139	25
endgame	71	15
foul	0	0
total	265	62

Result

Final score

265 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 84.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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