Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.2 – 73.2

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.4 ±11.6

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 27.09Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 49.85Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 17.26Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.1 ±13.3

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 29.45Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 67.86Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -24.11Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5190, 9788, 11297

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5190, 9788, 11297

Auto

15.1 15%

Teleop

65.1 66%

Endgame

17.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9198, 435, 6242

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9198, 435, 6242

Auto

14.1 22%

Teleop

26.3 42%

Endgame

22.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.2pts

Blue projected score73.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21
Score range: 53–114
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 112.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.4Season APEX134.1

15.1Auto14.1

65.1Teleop26.3

17.9Endgame22.9

54Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	23	35
endgame	21	14
foul	0	0
total	61	70

Result

Final score

61 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree