Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.61 – 126.07

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 5.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.3 ±11

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 29.12Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 46.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 50.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.5 ±12.8

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 17.27Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -13.84Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 122.64Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5607, 11417, 9042

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 11417, 9042

Auto

12.5 10%

Teleop

68.5 55%

Endgame

43.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10583, 9296, 9297

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10583, 9296, 9297

Auto

26.0 20%

Teleop

72.1 56%

Endgame

31.7 24%

Strengths

· 9297 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.6pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.5
Score range: 106–146
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 111.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.3Season APEX167.5

12.5Auto26

68.5Teleop72.1

43.1Endgame31.7

17Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	69	85
endgame	50	19
foul	0	0
total	135	128

Result

Final score

135 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 5.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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