Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.36 – 107.72

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±11.2

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 20.18Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 44.33Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 33.85Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.3 ±11.7

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 33.11Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 43.38Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6894Iced Java

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 31.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9789, 8205, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9789, 8205, 6004

Auto

25.5 26%

Teleop

44.7 46%

Endgame

26.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8758, 4534, 6894

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8758, 4534, 6894

Auto

30.6 29%

Teleop

44.3 42%

Endgame

31.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.4pts

Blue projected score107.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.4
Score range: 77–129
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 114.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166Season APEX195.3

25.5Auto30.6

44.7Teleop44.3

26.7Endgame31.3

109Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	52	6
endgame	33	18
foul	0	0
total	102	45

Result

Final score

102 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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