Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.58 – 87.54

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 142.1 ±11

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 18.92Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -10.79Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 32.45Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.6 ±11

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 43.64Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 17.24Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 26.66Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5607, 3459, 3822

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 3459, 3822

Auto

11.8 32%

Teleop

17.9 49%

Endgame

6.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4829, 5190, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4829, 5190, 9005

Auto

13.9 16%

Teleop

28.2 33%

Endgame

44.3 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.6pts

Blue projected score87.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47
Score range: 20–109
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

142.1Season APEX161.6

11.8Auto13.9

17.9Teleop28.2

6.9Endgame44.3

73Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	39	78
endgame	17	20
foul	0	0
total	81	117

Result

Final score

81 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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