Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.88 – 37.12

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

404 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 63 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.1 ±10

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 153.72Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 29.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 99.2Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100.5 ±13.3

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 8.55Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -16.34Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 44.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9496, 9042, 9297

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9496, 9042, 9297

Auto

48.4 17%

Teleop

159.6 56%

Endgame

78.1 27%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7443, 6242, 3893

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7443, 6242, 3893

Auto

9.4 28%

Teleop

23.1 69%

Endgame

1.2 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score282.9pts

Blue projected score37.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.8
Score range: 17–303
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 110.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.1Season APEX100.5

48.4Auto9.4

159.6Teleop23.1

78.1Endgame1.2

150Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	16
teleop	241	14
endgame	77	12
foul	0	0
total	404	42

Result

Final score

404 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 63 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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