Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.33 – 94.71

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±11.7

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 23.59Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 18.99Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 53.75Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 107 ±13.9

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 24.76Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 58.04Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 11.91Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11146, 10583, 11417

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11146, 10583, 11417

Auto

22.3 25%

Teleop

36.1 41%

Endgame

29.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9789, 8758, 10260

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9789, 8758, 10260

Auto

44.8 52%

Teleop

34.2 40%

Endgame

6.6 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.3pts

Blue projected score94.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.6
Score range: 75–116
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.4Season APEX107

22.3Auto44.8

36.1Teleop34.2

29.4Endgame6.6

137Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	20
teleop	29	9
endgame	22	6
foul	0	0
total	75	35

Result

Final score

75 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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