Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

6.2 – 159.67

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 86.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.9 ±10.7

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 1.3Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 0.1Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 4.8Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±9.8

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 45.3Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 86.58Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 27.79Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6004, 9296, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6004, 9296, 6639

Auto

13.3 100%

Teleop

0.5 12%

Endgame

-9.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 9032, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 9032, 9788

Auto

44.4 27%

Teleop

77.2 48%

Endgame

40.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score6.2pts

Blue projected score159.7pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153.5
Score range: -14–180
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 110.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.9Season APEX367.7

13.3Auto44.4

0.5Teleop77.2

-9.7Endgame40

71Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	62
teleop	41	143
endgame	31	42
foul	5	0
total	92	247

Result

Final score

92 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 86.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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