Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.44 – 57.55

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.2 ±11

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 45.34Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 45.9Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4534Wired Wizards

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 66.2Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.2 ±12.2

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 15.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9198The Beach Botz

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 20.2Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 21.68Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3893, 9005, 4534

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3893, 9005, 4534

Auto

10.4 7%

Teleop

77.1 50%

Endgame

66.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3336, 9198, 9789

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3336, 9198, 9789

Auto

7.4 13%

Teleop

32.7 57%

Endgame

17.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.4pts

Blue projected score57.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.9
Score range: 38–177
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 111.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.2Season APEX128.2

10.4Auto7.4

77.1Teleop32.7

66Endgame17.7

55Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	64	24
endgame	18	16
foul	0	0
total	109	66

Result

Final score

109 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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