Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
88.71 – 167.35
27%73%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
176 – 85
Prediction missed · off by 84.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±11.7
Season APEX 111.6Event APEX -1.65Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 91.71Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -1.35Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147 ±12.2
Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 82.4Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 53.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 31.72Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2059, 9297, 10260
54
/ 100 compatProjected
88.7 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 2059, 9297, 10260
Auto
5.1 7%
Teleop
36.8 47%
Endgame
36.0 46%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 435, 6894, 5190
83
/ 100 compatProjected
167.4 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 435, 6894, 5190
Auto
8.3 5%
Teleop
100.7 62%
Endgame
53.6 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.83
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score88.7pts
Blue projected score167.4pts
Red win probability27%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -78.6
- Score range
- 69–187
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
242.7Season APEX147
5.1Auto8.3
36.8Teleop100.7
36Endgame53.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 19 |
| teleop | 117 | 35 |
| endgame | 36 | 26 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 176 | 85 |
Result
Final score
176 – 85
Prediction missed · off by 84.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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