Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.48 – 84.08

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.2 ±11.4

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 36.85Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX -9.88Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 110.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.6 ±9.8

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 5.9Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 33.04Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 45.14Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8758, 3822, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8758, 3822, 9496

Auto

51.5 39%

Teleop

56.4 42%

Endgame

25.4 19%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6639, 5607, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6639, 5607, 8205

Auto

32.6 38%

Teleop

33.6 39%

Endgame

19.4 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.5pts

Blue projected score84.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.4
Score range: 65–156
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 104.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.2Season APEX296.6

51.5Auto32.6

56.4Teleop33.6

25.4Endgame19.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	12
teleop	171	58
endgame	34	20
foul	5	5
total	293	95

Result

Final score

293 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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